Sport: NBAPick Selection: OVER
I'm playing on the Lakers and Spurs to finish OVER the total. With the first three games all having finished below the total, few are ready to jump on the 'over' in Game 4. That's given us excellent value with the 'over' for what I expect to be by far the highest scoring game that we've seen yet.
The fact that the Spurs scored 103 points in Game 3 wasn't particularly surprising. After all, they've averaged 98.7 points per game on this floor for the year and the Lakers have allowed an average of 101.6 in their road games. It was somewhat surprising that the Lakers managed only 84 though, as they normally average more than 108 per game. While it was a case of "too little, too late," it's worth mentioning that Kobe and co. finally came to life in the fourth quarter, scoring 27 points. It's also worth noting that they typically bounce back from a poor offensive performance by being involved in a high-scoring game the next time out.
In fact, the OVER is 12-7 (63%) the last 19 times that the Lakers were coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. Looking back further finds the OVER at 57-45-6 their last 108 in that situation.
Of course, the Spurs hold opponents to 85 points or less a lot more often than the Lakers get held to 85 or less. Since 2006, they've held 97 opponents to 85 or fewer points. The following game, they've seen the OVER go 53-43-1, which is slightly better than 55%. When considering that the 'under' is 119-72-6 in all other San Antonio games (not including the previously mentioned 97) it shows a significant increase in games going OVER, after the Spurs held an opponent to or below the 85 mark.
The Spurs have scored 99 or more points in seven of their last eight games on this floor. During that eight game stretch, they've averaged 104 points. They know the importance of tonight's game and should be able to be effective on the offensive end of the floor once again. It's unlikely they'll keep the Lakers down again though. Prior to Sunday's game, the Lakers had scored 99 or more in 11 straight road games, averaging 107.7 during that stretch. Look for tonight's final combined score to be higher than expected, with the OVER improving to 6-3 on the season when the Lakers were coming off three consecutive games which had fallen below the total. *Blue Chip
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Handicappers
