Sport: NFLPick Selection: UNDER seattle/denver
Seattle comes off a high-scoring Monday Night game against Green Bay. That has given us extra value as the public expects another shootout tonight. I don't see it that way. First of all, that game would likely have been completely different if the Seahawks didn't keep turning the ball over in the first half, leading (directly or indirectly) to easy Green Bay points. More importantly, the Broncos' defense is MUCH better than the Packers' defense. In fact, Denver's 15 points allowed ranks in the top five in the league while Green Bay (26 point allowed) ranks dead last in that category. The Broncos' defense will be highly motivated this week to help snap their losing skid and to help minimize the pressure on their young quarterback. We've all heard about Cutler's great arm. However, lets keep in mind that this is his first start. Tatum Bell, Denver's leading rusher, is expected to return. Bell and the other Bronco backs should get plenty of work. On the Seahawks' side of the ball, Alexander showed he was ready to 'carry the load' as he carried the ball 40 times last week. Looking at some over/under stats and we find that the Broncos have seen the 'under' go 7-3 the last 10 times they played a home game that was 'sandwiched' in between two road games. They have also seen 14 of 16 games dip below the number when coming off a game vs. a divisional opponent. This season, the 'under' is 6-2 when they were laying points, including a perfect 4-0 when they were favored from -3.5 to -9.5. Denver games have averaged less than 33 points this year and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair.
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