Sport: NFLPick Selection: See Writeup
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers 1:00 PM ET
Carolina Panthers +7 -110
***NFL Underdog High-Roller of the Month*** Indianapolis took care of Jacksonville on Monday night and now is playing on a short week in its second straight road game with a game against New England on deck. You could not ask for a better spot to go against the Colts here. Indianapolis jumped out on Jacksonville early and if David Garrard had not left the game, who knows what could have happened as his replacement Quinn Gray looked absolutely lost. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite.
They face a Carolina team that is coming off a bye week after two straight road wins and feeling pretty good about itself. The Panthers are 4-0 on the road and winless at home and that actually works in our favor here. Vinny Testaverde will be making his Carolina home debut after he completed 20-for-33 passes for 206 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions against Arizona. The Panthers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points.
The Colts have tremendous balance on offense, which places a lot of pressure on defensive coordinator Mike Trgovac when matching-up his regular and nickel packages against the Colts' spread offense. Carolina has allowed 20 points or fewer in five of its six games so the defense has played well and can slow down the Indianapolis attack. The Colts average 37.3 ppg at home but that drops to 27 ppg on the road. The main factor is to keep the Colts offense off the field as much as possible.
The Panthers must find a way to get their running game going to open up the back end for some explosive downfield plays to Steve Smith. Carolina is averaging a solid 132.5 ypg on 4.6 ypc rushing so it definitely has the ability to get things going with the rushing game. The Colts are allowing 4.2 ypc and while the 107.3 ypg allowed looks great, it?s due to the opponent abandoning the running game far earlier than it wants to. Testaverde looked good against the Cardinals but the Panthers will run and then run some more.
The Colts defense has been solid this season and coming off a game with a big yardage differential sets up a great situation for Carolina. Play against any team with a defense that is allowing 4.8 or less ypp and coming off a game where it outgained the opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. This situation has brought home the money in 15 of the last 17 occurrences. Play Carolina Panthers 3 Units
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings +1.5 -105
***False Favorite Game of the Week*** Both Philadelphia and Minnesota come in with identical 2-4 records so I?m trying to figure out why Minnesota is not a slight home favorite. The Eagles are clearly getting more respect here based on preseason expectations but for all intensive purposes, those can be thrown out the door. Philadelphia is struggling on offense as it has scored 16 or fewer points in five of six games and take away the 56-point aberration against Detroit and its average points score goes from 19.3 ppg to 12 ppg.
The Vikings are back home after two straight road games and four road games in their last five contests played so the schedule has been unkind early. Not to mention that Minnesota has played four of six games against teams with a winning record and that doesn?t include the Bears. Overall, Minnesota has played the 4th toughest schedule in the league. The Vikings have the better running game on both sides of the ball and that is a big edge, especially when they are home and getting points.
Minnesota leads the NFL in rushing with 163.7 ypg and 5.5 ypc. The main reason for this has been the great start for rookie Adrian Peterson as is averaging 6.2 ypc and has a legitimate chance to become just the fifth rookie si
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