Sport: NFLPick Selection: Minnesota Vikings +7 -110
San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings +7 -110
San Diego is coming off a blowout win over Houston last Sunday but take a look at the boxscore and you will wonder how it happened. The Texans dominated the game by running 35 more plays from scrimmage thus wining the TOP by over 13 more minutes, doubled the Chargers 22-11 in first downs and outgained San Diego 367-237. The difference was turnover as the Chargers won that battle 5-0. San Diego scored two touchdowns directly off turnovers.
Minnesota remains home following a loss to the Eagles. The Vikings once again did a great job with stopping the run as they held Philadelphia to 62 yards rushing on 26 carries (2.4 ypc) to remain 1st in the NFC in rushing defense. The problem came on offense as the passing game was virtually non-existent. The Vikings threw for only 151 yards between Kelly Holcomb and Brooks Bollinger. The good news is that Tarvaris Jackson will be back this week after missing last week with a broken finger.
The Vikings have outrushed every opponent this season and they will need to do it again or at least come close against the powerful Chargers rushing attack. San Diego could not do much on the ground last week against Houston and should have an even tougher time here against Minnesota. Don?t be surprised to see the Chargers going through the motions as they are definitely in a lookahead spot with as they host Indianapolis next week in San Diego.
The Vikings are a few plays away from having a winning record as they have simply not been able to win the close games. This team has not been blown out as it has lost five games by a total of 30 points, an average of a touchdown a game. Confidence remains high and you only have to go back to 2005 when they were in a similar spot. They were 2-5 at the same point two years ago but won six consecutive games and wound up 9-7. The schedule is definitely doable the remainder of the season.
The infamous two-time zone situation is in effect here. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 10-48 ATS (17.2 percent) since 2000. That includes a 1-8 ATS mark last season and a 2-4 ATS mark this year. A huge tightener for this system is going against those teams is they are favored by six or more points. This brings the situation to 2-23 ATS (8 percent) since 1990.
As mentioned earlier, the Chargers benefited from a 5-0 advantage against the Texans last week and that sets the Vikings up in a great situation. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are +2.5 or better in turnover margin after a game where they forced five or more turnovers. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -0.5 ppg. Look for the Vikings to keep this one very close. Play Minnesota Vikings 1.5 Units
Matt Fargo is having a great NFL season as his dime players are +$11,150 on the season! He is hitting plays at a 60.9% clip over the last 5 weeks and he has three afternoon Winners right here!
**Wiseguy of the Month backed by by a 48-10 ATS (82.8%) Power Situation
**High-Roller Crusher backed by a 37-13 ATS (74%) Power Situation
**Patriots/Colts Winner backed by 44-13 ATS (77.2%) Power Situation
**Cowboys/Eagles winner backed by 32-13 ATS (71.1%) Power Situation
Primetime plays are on a 6-1 ATS (85.7%) run.
The NCAA Game of the Year was an easy Winner with Toledo yesterday to extend those plays to 6-1 ATS! Check back for a possible play tonight between SMU and Houston.
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