Sport: NFLPick Selection: Miami Dolphins +16 -105
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers 8:30 PM ET
Miami Dolphins +16 -105
This spread rivals the New England spread last night. While that spread was 25 and the Pittsburgh spread is 16, it is almost perfectly in line. The Dolphins are no Eagles, 10 points worse on a road field actually, but the Steelers are no Patriots, probably more than 10 points worse. With the parity in the league, a team that has won seven fewer games is not that far behind as they used to be. Especially when the Dolphins have played the 5th toughest schedule in the league compared to Pittsburgh having played the 29th toughest.
You have to wonder how many close games Miami can play before it finally breaks through. Half of the Dolphins losses have been by exactly a field goal and their biggest loss on the road was by just 10 points. Miami is getting outscored by an average of just 5.8 ppg on the road while getting outgained by only 44 ypg. The offense is struggling but the defense remains solid, allowing just 14.3 ppg in their last three games. If there was an award for the best winless team after 10 games ever, this could be the team.
Let?s take a look at what Pittsburgh has done this season. Prior to last Sunday, the Steelers were being talked about taking over Indianapolis as the team that has the shot to take out the Patriots. Then comes the loss to the Jets. Granted, Pittsburgh had just come off three straight divisional games but an elite NFL team simply doesn?t lose those games. A bounce back here? Well, after starting 3-0, the Steelers have gone 4-3 with the only ?good? win being the victory over Seattle. This team is overhyped.
The Steelers have not made it secret that they will be coming after newly appointed quarterback John Beck tonight. If there is a good side to that for him, it?s that he faced a blitz-happy Eagles defense last week. That, in itself, could give him a little more confidence as he tries to lead the Dolphins to their first win of the season. Beck worked hard this week looking at film and he will have a big improvement over his maiden voyage. Troy Polamalu is out and Tyrone Carter is a huge drop-off in defensive talent.
The public is all over the Steelers similar to the way they were all over the Patriots last night. Add to that a winless team gives us great value. Play on road underdogs or pick after seven or more consecutive losses after the first month of the season. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -1.4 ppg. Both St. Louis and San Francisco won this season under this scenario which has gone 21-5 ATS (80.8 percent) over the last 10 years. Play Miami Dolphins 2 Units
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