Sport: NFLPick Selection: Panthers, Chiefs, Raiders
This three game report includes play on the Panthers, Chiefs and Raiders.
I'm laying the points with CAROLINA. I successfully played on the 49ers last week in their upset overtime win at Arizona. While the playoffs remain a real longshot, that was a huge win for the 49ers as they had been really struggling. In fact, as Tully Banta-Cain (the SF player scored the winning TD last week) had to say: "You could have swore we just won the Super Bowl the way we were celebrating." Off that emotional win, traveling across the country to play an early game (their second straight on the road) I expect the 49ers to stumble this week. The Panthers don't exactly have Tom Brady at quarterback. However, their current QB situation is at least equal to that of the 49ers. The Panthers have been great at "taking care of business" against weaker opposition at this time of year as they are 33-17 ATS the last 50 times they faced a team with a losing record. The Panthers desperately want/need a win in front of their home fans and I expect this to be the perfect opponent for them to get one. Look for them to improve to 5-1 SU/ATS their last six games against teams from the NFC West and 13-3 ATS the last 16 in this series. *Situational Blowout
I'm taking the points with KANSAS CITY. The Chargers come off a convincing win over the hapless Raiders. Off that win, the Chargers now must travel across the country to play a 1:00 pm EST start at Arrowhead Stadium. That situation hasn't been kind to them. Both their 2006 regular season losses, including one right hereat Kansas City, came when the Chargers played an "early" game. This season, the Chargers have already lost all three of their early games, losing at Green Bay, Minnesota and Jacksonville. Including the loss at Minnesota, the Chargers are 1-6 ATS as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range since the start of the 2005 season. During the same stretch, the Chiefs, who were beaten by Oakland on Sunday, are a profitable 5-1 ATS when coming off a loss vs. a division rival. The Chiefs already won outright at San Diego and they've won 14 of the past 18 series meetings here at Kansas City. Despite their poor overall record, the Chiefs aren't quite out of contention for the AFC West title. That beings said, this is clearly a "must win" game as they will have zero chance if they lose today. Look for a massive team effort from the Chiefs as the Chargers' struggles on the road and at this venue continue for another week. *Shocker of the Week
I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. The Raiders are coming off a rare victory at Kansas City. That snapped a losing streak and I expect them to carry some positive momentum into this afternoon's contest. On the other hand, the Broncos are coming off a tough loss, as they blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead, en route to an overtime loss at Chicago. That loss really hurt their playoff chances and it dropped them to 1-4 ATS on the road for the season. That's not surprising, given that they've allowed an average of 28.8 points in those five games. While they weren't favored in the loss at Chicago, its worth mentioning that the Broncos are a dismal 4-14 ATS the last 18 times they were laying points. Conversely, the Raiders are a fairly respectable 10-7 ATS the last 17 times that they were getting points. The Raiders easily covered at Denver earlier in the year and they also covered when these teams faced each other here last season. Traveling across the country off their painful loss, playing their second straight road game while facing an under-rated and revenge-minded opponent, look for the Broncos to stumble again. *AFC West GOM
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