Sport: NFLPick Selection: Miami Dolphins
At 1 pm, our AFC East Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins plus the points over Buffalo. Miami's winless on the year, but fall into an 81-38 ATS system of mine that plays on certain winless teams at Game 5 of the season or later vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .250. These two teams met earlier this year, and Buffalo eked out a 3-point win, 13-10. Miami is 11-6 ATS vs. the Bills since 1980 off a SU/ATS loss, including 6-1 ATS with revenge. The weather is expected to be miserable, with a temperature around 32 degrees, and possible freezing rain. That will especially hamper offenses, and getting this large of an underdog is a solid play under these circumstances. Miami's defense is better than Buffalo's, to the extent the Bills' defense doesn't get much pressure on the QB (the Bills have managed just 5 sacks and 2 interceptions over the last 5 games). And Buffy allows a league-worst 49 percent conversion rate on third down. Miami's defense is a lot more active, with 11 sacks, 2 interceptions, a fumble recovery and a TD in just its last 2 games, so look for Trent Edwards to be in trouble somewhat in these poor weather conditions, and to be pressured into some bad decisions. Take the points with the Dolphins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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