Sport: NFLPick Selection: Chicago Bears +10.5 -110
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings 8:30 PM ET
Chicago Bears +10.5 -110
This game sets up almost identical to what we saw late Sunday with Philadelphia against Dallas and Washington against New York. Two hated rivals squaring off with the favorite coming in as a very hot team with the underdog coming in with not a whole lot of fight. Minnesota has won four straight games and controls its own destiny for the playoffs. Chicago enters this game with no shot at the playoffs but is playing with pride which can often be a great equalizer.
Chicago is also quite similar to Washington in that it will be starting a quarterback that was not involved in the first meeting and one that there is hardly any game film on. While Todd Collins played mediocre for the Redskins, he didn?t make any mistakes and the Bears will be looking for a similar blueprint from Kyle Orton. Orton has not thrown a pass this season and while rust will be an issue, the defense having no idea what to expect is an even bigger advantage.
The Vikings are hot right now but are they really 10 points better than Chicago? Double-digit favorites are for the elite teams in the league and Minnesota is far from that. The Vikings lost to Green Bay 34-0 just five weeks ago and there is no reason, Adrian Peterson injury or not, that a team loses a game like that. The last two victories have come against Detroit and San Francisco, a combined 3-11 in November and December. The Bears meanwhile have played the 4th toughest schedule in the NFL.
Chicago has performed better on the road than at home this season and getting blow away is not an option. The Bears lost to Detroit by 10 points in a game where the Lions scored 34 fourth quarter points. Two other losses came at San Diego and Seattle, both of which are division winners and a third last Thursday against Washington where Rex Grossman went down in the first quarter. Overall, Chicago is getting outscored by just 2.1 ppg on the road while getting outgained by only 19.6 ypg.
The Bears fall into a very simple yet effective contrarian situation. Play against favorites after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45 and 55 percent on the season. This situation is 35-14 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -2 ppg. The key is the 55 percent winning percentage. It means a good team but not a great team and one that should not be favored by this much. Play Chicago Bears 2.5 Units
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