Sport: NFLPick Selection: Denver Broncos +9 -110
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers 8:00 PM ET
Denver Broncos +9 -110
Denver may be out of the playoffs and playing poorly with three losses in its last four games but this is still a huge rivalry game with a lot of pride on the line. The Broncos no doubt have not forgotten about what the Chargers did to them in Denver in the first meeting and while I am not a backer of road revenge, this is a little different. The spread is enormous for a divisional game and while Denver will be trying for some payback and get that win, we don?t need it, but just the cover with this lofty line.
San Diego has the playoffs locked up and are shooting for the third seed in the AFC, basically to avoid playing the Jaguars in the first round. However, a home playoff game is guaranteed and health at this point could be the most important factor. The defense is banged up with Luis Castillo and Shawne Merriman both hurting at not at 100 percent. Offensively, both LaDanian Tomlinson and Michael Turner are on the injury list and not 100 percent either. What is more important for the Chargers at this point?
What we have tonight is a typical week 16 game where motivation can play a bigger role than recent play on the field and that is where Denver has the edge. In the Broncos last three losses, they are actually +7 ypg overall. The one victory came against Kansas City just two weeks ago and people are forgetting that the Broncos won the yardage battle in that game by 324 yards. This Broncos team is still hugely talented and coupled with big motivation makes them a very live underdog.
As mentioned, this is a revenge game for Denver and it actually falls into a great revenge spot despite playing this one on the road. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are revenging a loss against opponent and have a losing record, winning between 40 and 49 percent of their games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -1.3 ppg.
We saw yesterday how turnovers can come full circle with the Giants as they fell into a great situation based on not forcing prior turnovers. San Diego falls into a similar spot but one that goes against based on forcing a lot in its last game. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are forcing 2.5 or more turnovers per game, after a game where they forced five or more turnovers. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +0.1 ppg. Play Denver Broncos 2.5 Units
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