Sport: NFLPick Selection: #258 TAMPA BAY (-12')
#258 TAMPA BAY (-12') over Atlanta at 1 PM EST
The season can't end fast enough for Atlanta. The Falcons are without two of their most important assets - QB Michael Vick and now head coach Bobby Petrino. If that wasn't bad enough, Atlanta's recent play only makes this spot worse. On an ugly 0-4 SU and ATS run, the Falcons have surrendered an average of 31.0 ppg and scored an average of just 12.5 ppg over the past four weeks!
There is a really strong system that goes against Atlanta here as well. Since 1980, game 10 or later road teams that arrive off three consecutive double-digit straight up losses are a shocking 12-43 ATS provided they were NOT shutout in their last game. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .500, this situation dips to a dismal 2-21 ATS! The Falcons fit both parts of this system!
With the NFC South title on the line, Tampa Bay won't screw around. This is actually a phenomenal spot for the Bucs. As a favorite coming off a straight up loss as a favorite, Tampa has been incredible notching a sweet 21-3 SU and ATS record. Provided the Bucs were favored by -7 or less last, this team trend explodes to a sensational 18-1 SU and ATS! The Bay fits both situations perfectly.
As an underdog of +10 or more coming off a straight up loss of 10 points or more, the Falcons have crash landed posting an ugly 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS mark provided they're matched up against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage greater than .600. The Atlanta faithful will be hoping the team rallies after this week's turn of events. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers smell blood and they're going to go for the jugular. Take Tampa Bay. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
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