Sport: NFLPick Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5 -110
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots 4:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5 -110
Let?s preface this writeup by claiming that Anthony Smith is an idiot. Young players in the NFL have no place running their mouths when the veterans do their talking on the field. Anyway, the Patriots remain undefeated thanks to some questionable refereeing last Monday in Baltimore. New England was on the cusp of dropping its first game but managed to score the final 10 points of the game to keep an unblemished season alive. A loss against Baltimore would mean a no play here but the win gives us extra incentive.
The Steelers took care of the Bengals last Sunday night to improve to 7-0 at home. They are just 2-3 on the road but those three losses came by a combined 13 points and the defeats against Arizona and the Jets were the absolute worst spots. The former came off three straight wins by 27, 23 and 21 points and the latter came off three straight division games. There are no excuses for losing to teams like that but like any professional sport, there are let down spots. This is the exact opposite.
While Smith never should have guaranteed anything, he makes great points. Pittsburgh matches up very well on both sides of the ball and the special teams is arguably in its favor to begin with. If all three of those phases mesh together, then the Steelers can win outright. The Steelers stopped the Patriots' record 21-game winning streak in 2004 so don?t think for a second they cannot win this one outright but we aren?t overly concerned about that as we care only about staying within single digits.
New England is not perfect after all. The Patriots were actually outgained by the Ravens, the first time that has happened this season. They were outrushed for the fifth time in seven games and it might finally catch up to them here. Willie Parker is ready for a big game. He had 81 yards on 24 carries against the Dolphins and 87 yards on 28 carries against the Bengals but both of those games were in horrendous weather. A good field and no rubber sleeves will also help him hold onto the ball.
Pittsburgh has an edge at the line of scrimmage and that can go a long way here. New England is dead even on the season in ypc margin while the Steelers are +.05 ypc. The Steelers are allowing just 76.8 ypg on 3.6 ypc and while New England does not rely much on the running game, Pittsburgh has the clear advantage. The Steelers are going to do what the Eagles and Ravens did and that is applying a ton of pressure on Tom Brady. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau loves to bring zone-blitz pressure from all over the field.
Wide receiver Santonio Holmes, safety Troy Polamalu and offensive tackle Marvel Smith all should be back for this one. Polamalu is still the biggest question but he will do all that it takes to get on that field. This line has dropped considerably and for good reason as the Steelers have not seen double digits too often. Since 1992, they have gotten more than 10 points four times, going 4-0 ATS. The last was in 2006 in the playoffs against the supposed ?untouchable? Colts. They won outright 21-18 as 10-point underdogs. Play Pittsburgh Steelers 1 Unit
Matt Fargo is having another solid NFL campaign as he has shown a profit of $10,200 on the year and has won $21,00 since 12/31 of last season! The biggest Dog this season goes Sunday! AFC Game of the Year - Winner! NFL Revenge Game of the Year - Winner! Make is 3-0 backed by 2 Power Situations a combined 59-15 ATS (79.7%)! Guaranteed!
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