Sport: NFLPick Selection: Texans, Ravens, Broncos
This three game report includes plays on the Texans, Ravens, Broncos.
I'm laying the points with HOUSTON. I believe that the Texans have significantly more to play for. For starters, this is their home finale and final game of the season. They'll also be playing with "revenge" from an embarrassing loss at Jacksonville AND also trying to avoid going winless within the division. Additionally, they'll be trying to finish with a 500 record, the best mark in franchise history. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has nothing to play for already being locked into the fifth seed in the AFC. Despite the earlier loss, the Texans remain a profitable 8-3 ATS the last 11 series meetings. That includes an easy 27-7 victory when the teams met here last season. While they lost at Indianapolis last week, the Texans are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three home games. All three victories came by double-digits. They came against three fairly respectable opponents too, Denver, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Dating back to an outright upset of the Colts last Christmas Eve, the Texans are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine home games. Look for the Texans to continue their excellent play on this field as they avenge the earlier loss with a double-digit win of their own. *AFC Blowout GOM
I'm taking the points with BALTIMORE. Tomlin and the Steelers can say what they want about playing hard and wanting the third seed. The fact is that they've already lost running back Willie Parker and they can't afford any more injuries. Both QB Roethlisberger (ankle) and safety Troy Polamalu (knee) have been watched closely in practice this week. Both may play sparingly Sunday. Regardless of their motivation, the Steelers simply haven't been a good road team this season, going 3-4 SU/ATS away from home. Unlike their guests, the Ravens should have plenty of motivation. This is their home finale and they can still finish the year with a 500 mark here with a victory. Coach Billick has heard plenty of talk about his job being in jeopardy. Additionally, the Ravens were embarrassed on national TV (MNF on 11/06) at Pittsburgh earlier. Despite that loss, the Ravens remain a profitable 4-1 ATS the last five series meetings. Although they're battling injuries, look for the Ravens to step up and avoid being swept by the Steelers in a season series for the first time since 2002.
I'm taking the points with DENVER. Last week's loss was a crushing one for the Vikings as they no longer control their playoff destiny. Even if they're fortunate enough to win this afternoon, the Vikings now have to rely on the Cowboys (a +9 underdog) to beat the Redskins for them. Considering that Dallas is expected to rest many starters, this isn't all that likely and the Vikings know it. Off that disappointing loss, with that knowledge, I expect the Vikings to struggle. Yes, the Broncos have had a disappointing season and yes, they are coming off an ugly Monday Night loss. However, they're 22-8 SU the last 30 times that they were coming off a Monday Night game and I still believe that they're a better team than their record indicates. Playing their home finale and final game of the season, with a chance to do some "spoiling," look for the Broncos to step up and score the upset.
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