Sport: NFLPick Selection: San Francisco 49ers +8.5 -110
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers 8:15 PM ET
San Francisco 49ers +8.5 -110
The Bengals barely snuck by the Rams last Sunday and scored a hefty 19 points in the process. By all means, make them a huge road favorite in a game that means absolutely nothing to them. Cincinnati has won only one road game all season long and that game came against Baltimore who is playing some of the worst football in the league right now with seven straight losses. The Bengals are getting worse and worse yet their two biggest favorite lines have been in the last two weeks. Go figure.
San Francisco is certainly no prize but it is getting more points this week than it did last week against the Vikings. Basically, they are saying that Cincinnati is better than Minnesota and that could be the furthest thing from the truth. While Minnesota won that game by 20 points, it was actually outgained by the 49ers in total yardage. The last two sentences are not contradictions. It shows that San Francisco, despite being in a horrid slump, is still playing with some heart.
The quarterback situation in San Francisco is actually getting better. Alex Smith remains out while Trent Dilfer made the 49ers worse. Enter Shaun Hill. He was 22-of-28 for 181 yards, one touchdown and one pick in relief of the aforementioned Dilfer last week who put San Francisco in an insurmountable hole. At least with Hill, we will get some passion and some energy and with a solid receiving corps to throw to against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, he can have another good game.
More importantly for San Francisco, Frank Gore will actually be able to get something on the ground, as the Bengals are much worse versus the run than the Vikings are. On the flip side, Cincinnati is averaging only 78.5 ypg on 3.2 ypg on the ground in its five road games. While San Francisco does not have a huge advantage in the running game, it has an edge it rarely sees. The Bengals remain one of the most inconsistent teams in the league and with Cleveland on deck at home, they are already looking ahead.
San Francisco is getting a ton of points here based on its season performance but with that comes value and value against a very below team. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games and that are winning 25 percent or less of their games in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-10 ATS (69.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -4.8 ppg. Look for a close one here. Play San Francisco 49ers 2 Units
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