Sport: NFLPick Selection: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings UNDER
I'm playing on Chicago and Minnesota to finish UNDER the number. The Vikings have been playing well lately and scoring a lot of points. That's taken away some of the attention from the defense. However, the Vikings have also been excellent on that side of the ball lately. Indeed, over their last three games, they have held opponents to an average of only 11 points, allowing 17 or less in each of those games. Last week, they limited the 49ers to just seven points in game that finished with 34 points. That marked their fourth straight impressive victory. More importantly, it also brought the UNDER to 7-1-1 since 2005 when they were coming off two or more consecutive victories. During that stretch, the Vikings have seen the UNDER go 10-4 when playing with an over/under line ranging from 42.5 to 49 and 3-0 when playing on Monday Night. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 15-6 the last 21 times the Vikings have played on a Monday. Due in no small part to injuries, the Bears defense hasn't been nearly as good this season as it has been in recent years. However, they've been somewhat better defensively on the road and I believe that they're still capable of being formidable when backed into a corner. That's the situation here as they're playing with "revenge" while still clinging to very slim Wildcard hopes. Kyle Orton gets the start at QB tonight. You may recall him from 2005 when he led the Bears as a rookie. Chicago was really playing well defensively at that time and therefore Orton's record was respectable. However, his stats were not. Indeed, Orton finished the 2005 season throwing only nine touchdowns with 13 interceptions and a terrible 59.7 quarterback rating. Playing on national TV and with Orton under center, I expect the Bears' defense to elevate their game. Lovie Smith will also try to make things easy on Orton by running the ball. That's not easy against the Vikes though as they have the top-ranked run defense in the league and have allowed an average of only 47.6 rushing yards their last five home games. Looking at the series history and we find the UNDER at 8-5-1 the last 14 meetings. Note that 11 of those 14 meetings produced 44 points or less. Additionally, note that the last five meetings all have over/under lines of 37 points or less. Tonight's is significantly higher, which I feel gives us excellent value. The most recent meeting here produced 35 points. I expect a similar combined final number tonight with the UNDER improving to 14-6 the last 20 times the Bears were listed as underdogs. *Blue Chip
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