Sport: NFLPick Selection: Miami Dolphins +7 -105
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM ET
Miami Dolphins +7 -105
***NFL Underdog Game of the Year*** Buffalo has not been favored by a touchdown in close to three years. The last time was in the 2004-05 season finale against Pittsburgh when the Steelers were resting all of their starters and the Bills still lost. With this game against the Dolphins being a must-win situation and with Miami still winless on the season, the linesmakers have no choice but to make Buffalo a ?bigger than it should be favorite?. The Bills don?t have the offense to cover a touchdown as explained later.
Miami is coming off a tough loss at home against the Jets and that was a game many felt was the last opportunity for the Dolphins to break out of their winless funk. Well, this is the NFL and on any given Sunday?you know the rest. Miami is not a very good team but it is the furthest from one of the worst winless teams of all-time. The Dolphins have lost six games by exactly a field goal including five games on the road (including the one in London). Horrible teams do not compete like that.
Buffalo is being asked to win by over a touchdown when it is averaging only 15.3 ppg on the season, which is 29th in the league. The Bills are 6-6 on the season but are getting outscored by over seven points per game and they have scored fewer than 20 points in 10 of their 12 games. One of those exceptions was against the Cowboys with 21 of the 24 points being scored by defense and special teams. Buffalo has been outgained by an average of 95.5 ypg while Miami is getting outgained by only 46.8 ypg.
The Miami defense is nothing special but prior to allowing 40 points to the Jets last Sunday, it has allowed an average of 11.5 ppg in its last four games. Play on any team after allowing 35 points or more last game going up against an opponent that has scored 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +7.2 ppg. This has won 14 of the last 17 occurrences over the last five years.
The losing streak for the Dolphins is being faded by many but with only six ATS losses, the Dolphins are not getting waxed on a weekly basis and the losing streak is definitely a benefit as far as value goes. Play on road teams after seven or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -1.4 ppg. That shows how much value there actually is we take full advantage here. Dolphins outright? Don?t bet against it. Play Miami Dolphins 5 Units
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