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Tom Stryker's NFL Pre-Season Game of the Year - 8/31/2007 7:30:00 PM
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Sport: NFLPick Selection: #146 CINCINNATI (-5)
#146 CINCINNATI (-5) over Indianapolis at 7:30 PM EST
Off their 37-10 home win over Detroit and with the season opener at the RCA Dome versus New Orleans on deck, Indianapolis will definitely go through the motions here. The Colts have to turn around and play on Thursday and their focus is on the Saints and roster cuts - NOT defeating Cincinnati.
The Bengals have dropped three straight to open the Pre-Season and head coach Marvin Lewis needs to give his troops a little momentum going into the start of the season. A victory over the Super Bowl Champions would do exactly that. Let's take a look inside the numbers.
According to my NFLX Pre-Season database, winless favorites at game four or five are a profitable 19-9-1 ATS. In this role matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win, our "play on" piece of chalk improves to a blistering 10-2 SU and ATS for 83.3 percent. Cincinnati fits this system and its tightener perfectly.
There is another strong system that backs the Bengals too. NFL Pre-Season hosts are a sizzling 16-7 ATS provided they check in off back-to-back straight up losses as a favorite. If our "play on" home team is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .500, this situation hits perfection at 6-0 ATS! The Bengals fit this system and its tightener as well!
The Bengals are hungry for a win and they'll have no trouble jumping all over a Colts bunch that will be going through the motions. Take Cincinnati. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
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