Sport: NFLPick Selection: Under 53 New Orleans Saints/Indianapolis Colts -110
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts 8:30 PM ET
Under 53 New Orleans Saints/Indianapolis Colts -110
***NFL Total of the Week*** We start the season with two prolific offenses in what the public sees as a shootout. Since this total opened at 51, it has already moved a point and a half in the early week and is likely going to rise even more before gametime. Sharp bettors are going to lay off and play the ?under? as close to gametime as possible seeing that this number could go up another couple points, giving it much added value. Going against the public, especially in an obvious ?over? situation, is the way to go.
Taking a look at the first week of the season gives us some more insight on how this game could play out. The under went 12-4 in week one last season and 9-7 in 2005 which does have a lot of backing as offenses, despite how good they were in prior seasons, is often rusty to start out a new season. Defenses are usually one step ahead of the offense this time of year and even a little advantage such as that can make or break an over or an under.
Last season, the Colts were involved in five games where the total was posted at 48 or more and all five of those games stayed under. And it was not like those games stayed under by a slim margin as the average score in those games was 38 ppg. New Orleans meanwhile was involved in three such games with the under coming in twice including both times during the regular season. The average score in those two contests was 40.5 ppg.
In this particular matchup, the Saints have a very good shot as slowing down the Colts. The Saints ranked second in total defense in the preseason, allowing an average of 232.6 ypg. They ranked 11th overall in 2006. On the other side, we saw what the Colts defense did in the playoffs and with everyone healthy, it would not be surprising to see Indianapolis do it again. The Colts surrendered just 16.3 ppg and allowed only 10 points against the Lions in game three in the preseason, the game where starters played the most minutes.
New Orleans, based on playing on the road, falls into a great under situation. Play under on road teams that averaged 24 or more ppg on the season last year. This situation is 32-16 ?under? (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons including a 17-5 ?under? mark (77.3 percent) over the last three seasons. The average score in those games was a mere 40.3 ppg. We are certainly catching a lot of value here and it should get even better closer to gametime as the perception is wrong this time around. Play Under New Orleans Saints/Indianapolis Colts 2.5 Units
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