Sport: NFLPick Selection: Green Bay Packers
At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our NFL 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Seattle, as Brett Favre & Co. fall into 50-28, 40-16, 31-14, 32-16 and 18-1 ATS systems. Let's take a look at our 32-16 ATS angle. Here, what we want to do is play on any home team off a 21-point (or greater) home win vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS home win. And if our foe has a win percentage greater than .625, then our 32-16 stat moves to 17-4 ATS. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS with Favre when favored by -8 or more points in the Playoffs, and Seattle has won just one of seven games in the Playoffs SU when getting 3+ points. Last week, Seattle used a strong fourth quarter to put away Washington 35-14, but NFL road teams are a poor 12% ATS off a 21-point or greater playoff win, if they scored 35 or more in that win, and they're now getting +6 or more points. This angle last appeared in the 2007 Super Bowl when Indy blew out Chicago 29-17 following the Bears' 39-14 thrashing of New Orleans in the NFC Championship game. The Packers' offense really started moving when RB Ryan Grant became the starter in week 8 vs. Kansas City. Since then, Green Bay has scored 27 or more points in eight of nine games, and has gone 7-2 ATS to end the year. Seattle's offense has been inconsistent all year, and it struggled mightily against two of the better defenses it faced on the road this season. Seattle was shut out 21-0 in Pittsburgh, and managed just 10 points in a critical late season game at Carolina, which it lost 13-10. But for two defensive TDs last week vs. Washington, Seattle might have lost that game as well. Look for Green Bay to blow out Seattle. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my winner in the New England/Jacksonville game on Saturday, or my NFL Totals Play on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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