Sport: NFLPick Selection: San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts: Colts
I'm laying the points with INDIANAPOLIS. Of course, there's no such thing as a "sure thing," however, there are several reasons why I really like the Colts this week. For starters, they're playing at home. The Colts also have the major advantage of having last week off. Note that they're 4-1 SU/ATS since 2005 when playing with two week's off in between games. The Chargers, on the other hand, played a hard-fought game against the hard-hitting Titans last weekend. That game was costly as star tight-end Antonio Gates was forced to leave with a "turf-toe" type injury. Assuming that Gates (currently questionable) plays, one can't expect him to be 100% effective as his ability to cut and stop quickly will likely be hindered. The Chargers followed up that difficult victory by flying across the country and now must play an early game (10:00am kickoff in San Diego time) against the defending World Champions. Brady and the Patriots have gotten all the attenion while the Colts have largely flown under the radar. Make no mistake though. This is still an elite team. In fact, one could easily argue that they're in better shape heading into the playoffs this season than they were last year. Last season, as had often been the case in previous years, there were serious question marks about the Colts' defense. That certainly hasn't been the case this season. In fact, the 16.4 points that they allow per game is the fewest in the entire league. The offense wasn't too shabby either, averaging greater than 28 points per game, second only to New England in the conference. Naturally, those stats (both offensive and defensive) are better than San Diego's Unlike their hosts, the Chargers aren't in nearly as good a shape as they were entering the playoffs last season. While they still managed a respectable season, lets remember that this is still a team that lost its head coach and both coordinators from last season. The Colts were 3-0 ATS in January last season, including a 23-8 home win over the Chiefs in their first game (Wildcard Rd) and a nine-point "upset" road win at Baltimore in the Divisional Round. Look for the Colts to avenge the an earlier loss at San Diego by recording a double-digit victory and taking the first step towards defending their title. *Playoff GOY
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